γ-Glutamyl Transferase and Long-Term Survival in the SYNTAXES Trial: Is It Just the Liver?

BACKGROUND: Recently, machine learning algorithms have identified preprocedural γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) as a significant predictor of long-term mortality after coronary revascularization in the SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI [Percutaneous Coronary Intervention] With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) trial. The aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of preprocedural GGT on 10-year all-cause mortality in patients with complex coronary artery disease after revascularization. METHODS AND RESULTS: The SYNTAX trial was a randomized trial comparing PCI with coronary artery bypass grafting in 1800 patients with complex coronary artery disease. The present report is a post hoc subanalysis of the SYNTAXES (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery Extended Survival) trial, an investigator-driven extended 10-year follow-up of the SYNTAX trial. The association between preprocedural GGT and 10-year all-cause mortality was investigated. The mean values of GGT for men and women were 43.5 (SD, 48.5) and 36.4 (SD, 46.1) U/L, respectively. In multivariable Cox regression models adjusted by traditional risk factors, GGT was an independent predictor for all-cause death at 10-year follow-up, and each SD increase in log-GGT was associated with a 1.24-fold risk of all cause death at 10-year follow-up (95% CI, 1.10-1.40). According to previously reported sex-related GGT thresholds, patients with higher GGT level had a 1.74-fold risk of all-cause death at 10-year follow-up (95% CI, 1.32-2.29) compared with patients with lower GGT level. CONCLUSIONS: Preprocedural GGT is an independent predictor of 10-year mortality after coronary revascularization in patients with complex coronary artery disease. In patients with elevated GGT, strong secondary prevention may be required after revascularization and must be studied prospectively. REGISTRATION: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03417050.

Can Machine Learning Aid the Selection of Percutaneous vs Surgical Revascularization?

BACKGROUND: In patients with 3-vessel coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or left main CAD, individual risk prediction plays a key role in deciding between percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess whether these individualized revascularization decisions can be improved by applying machine learning (ML) algorithms and integrating clinical, biological, and anatomical factors. METHODS: In the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) study, ML algorithms (Lasso regression, gradient boosting) were used to develop a prognostic index for 5-year death, which was combined, in the second stage, with assigned treatment (PCI or CABG) and prespecified effect-modifiers: disease type (3-vessel or left main CAD) and anatomical SYNTAX score. The model's discriminative ability to predict the risk of 5-year death and treatment benefit between PCI and CABG was cross-validated in the SYNTAX trial (n = 1,800) and externally validated in the CREDO-Kyoto (Coronary REvascularization Demonstrating Outcome Study in Kyoto) registry (n = 7,362), and then compared with the original SYNTAX score II 2020 (SSII-2020). RESULTS: The hybrid gradient boosting model performed best for predicting 5-year all-cause death with C-indexes of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75-0.81) in cross-validation and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76-0.79) in external validation. The ML models discriminated 5-year mortality better than the SSII-2020 in the external validation cohort and identified heterogeneity in the treatment benefit of CABG vs PCI. CONCLUSIONS: An ML-based approach for identifying individuals who benefit from CABG or PCI is feasible and effective. Implementation of this model in health care systems-trained to collect large numbers of parameters-may harmonize decision making globally. (Synergy Between PCI With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery: SYNTAX Extended Survival [SYNTAXES]; NCT03417050; SYNTAX Study: TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries; NCT00114972).

Impact of on-pump and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting on 10-year mortality versus percutaneous coronary intervention.

OBJECTIVES: The very long-term mortality of off-pump and on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) versus percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a randomized complex coronary artery disease population is unknown. This study aims to investigate the impact of on-pump and off-pump CABG versus PCI on 10-year all-cause mortality. METHODS: The SYNTAX trial randomized 1800 patients with three-vessel and/or left main coronary artery disease to PCI or CABG and assessed their survival at 10 years. In this sub-study, the hazard of mortality over 10 years was compared according to the technique of revascularization: on-pump CABG (n = 725), off-pump CABG (n = 128) and PCI (n = 903). RESULTS: There was substantial inter-site variation in the use of off-pump CABG despite baseline characteristics being largely homogeneous among the 3 groups. The crude rate of mortality was significantly lower following on-pump CABG versus PCI [25.6% vs 28.4%, hazard ratio (HR) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.96], while it was comparable between off-pump CABG and PCI (28.5% vs 28.4%, HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.69-1.40). After adjusting for the 9 variables included in the SYNTAX score II 2020, 10-year mortality remained significantly lower with on-pump CABG than PCI (HR 0.75 against PCI, P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: In the SYNTAXES trial, 10-year mortality adjusted for major confounders was significantly lower following on-pump CABG compared to PCI. There was no evidence for unadjusted difference between off-pump CABG and PCI, although the unadjusted estimated HR had a wide CI. Site heterogeneity in the technique used in bypass surgery has had measurable effects on treatment performance.

Impact of residual angina on long-term clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft for complex coronary artery disease.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact on 10-year survival of patient-reported anginal status at 1 year following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in patients with left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) and/or three-vessel CAD (3VD). METHODS AND RESULTS: In this post hoc analysis of the randomized SYNTAX Extended Survival study, patients were classified as having residual angina (RA) if their self-reported Seattle Angina Questionnaire angina frequency (SAQ-AF) scale was ≤90 at the 1-year follow-up post-revascularization with PCI or CABG. The primary endpoint of all-cause death at 10 years was compared between the RA and no-RA groups. A sensitivity analysis was performed using a 6-month SAQ-AF.At 1 year, 373 (26.1%) out of 1428 patients reported RA. Whilst RA at 1 year was an independent correlate of repeat revascularization at 5 years [18.3 vs. 11.5%; adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.15], it was not associated with all-cause death at 10 years (22.1 vs. 21.6%; adjusted HR: 1.11; 95% CI: 0.83-1.47). These results were consistent when stratified by the modality of revascularization (PCI or CABG) or by anginal frequency. The sensitivity analysis replicating the analyses based on 6-month angina status resulted in similar findings. CONCLUSION: Among patients with LMCAD and/or 3VD, patient-reported RA at 1 year post-revascularization was independently associated with repeat revascularization at 5 years; however, it did not significantly increase 10-year mortality, irrespective of the primary modality of revascularization or severity of RA.

Effect of Patient-Reported Preprocedural Physical and Mental Health on 10-Year Mortality After Percutaneous or Surgical Coronary Revascularization.

BACKGROUND: Clinical and anatomical characteristics are often considered key factors in deciding between percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with complex coronary artery disease (CAD) such as left-main CAD or 3-vessel disease. However, little is known about the interaction between self-reported preprocedural physical/mental health and clinical outcomes after revascularization. METHODS: This subgroup analysis of the SYNTAXES trial (SYNTAX Extended Survival), which is the extended follow-up of the randomized SYNTAX trial (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) comparing PCI with CABG in patients with left-main CAD or 3-vessel disease, stratified patients by terciles of Physical (PCS) or Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores derived from the preprocedural 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, with higher PCS and MCS scores representing better physical and mental health, respectively. The primary end point was all-cause death at 10 years. RESULTS: A total of 1656 patients with preprocedural 36-Item Short Form Health Survey data were included in the present study. Both higher PCS and MCS were independently associated with lower 10-year mortality (10-point increase in PCS adjusted hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.73-0.97]; P=0.021; in MCS adjusted hazard ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.76-0.95]; P=0.005). A significant survival benefit with CABG over PCI was observed in the highest PCS (>45.5) and MCS (>52.3) terciles with significant treatment-by-subgroup interactions (PCS Pinteraction=0.033, MCS Pinteraction=0.015). In patients with both high PCS (>45.5) and MCS (>52.3), 10-year mortality was significantly higher with PCI compared with CABG (30.5% versus 12.2%; hazard ratio, 2.87 [95% CI, 1.55-5.30]; P=0.001), whereas among those with low PCS (≤45.5) or low MCS (≤52.3), there were no significant differences in 10-year mortality between PCI and CABG, resulting in a significant treatment-by-subgroup interaction (Pinteraction=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with left-main CAD or 3-vessel disease, patient-reported preprocedural physical and mental health status was strongly associated with long-term mortality and modified the relative treatment effects of PCI versus CABG. Patients with the best physical and mental health had better 10-year survival with CABG compared with PCI. Assessment of self-reported physical and mental health is important when selecting the optimal revascularization strategy. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; SYNTAXES Unique identifier: NCT03417050. URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; SYNTAX Unique identifier: NCT00114972.

Mortality after multivessel revascularisation involving the proximal left anterior descending artery.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate whether long-term clinical outcomes differ following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with three-vessel disease (3VD) and lesions in the proximal left anterior descending artery (P-LAD). METHODS: This post-hoc analysis of the Synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) Extended Survival study included patients with 3VD who were classified according to the presence or absence of lesions located in the P-LAD. Ten-year all-cause death and 5-year major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE) were assessed. RESULTS: Among 1088 patients with 3VD, 559 (51.4%) had involvement of P-LAD and their 10-year mortality was numerically higher following PCI versus CABG (28.9% vs 21.9%; HR: 1.39, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.95). Although patients without P-LAD lesions had significantly higher 10-year mortality following PCI compared with CABG, there was no evidence of a treatment-by-subgroup interaction (28.8% vs 20.2%; HR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.09, pinteraction=0.837). The incidence of MACCE at 5 years was significantly higher with PCI than CABG, irrespective of involvement of P-LAD (with P-LAD: HR: 1.86, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.55; without P-LAD: HR: 1.54, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.12; pinteraction=0.408). Individualised assessment using the SYNTAX Score II 2020 established that a quarter of patients with P-LAD lesions had significantly higher mortality with PCI than CABG, whereas in the remaining three-quarters CABG had similar mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with 3VD, the presence or absence of a P-LAD lesion was not associated with any treatment effect on long-term outcomes following PCI or CABG. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: SYNTAXES: NCT03417050; SYNTAX: NCT00114972.

One-year performance of biorestorative polymeric coronary bypass grafts in an ovine model: correlation between early biomechanics and late serial Quantitative Flow Ratio.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the impact of mechanical factors at baseline on the patency of a restorative conduit for coronary bypass grafts in an ovine model at serial follow-up up to 1 year. METHODS: The analyses of 4 mechanical factors [i.e. bending angle, superficial wall strain and minimum and maximum endothelial shear stress (ESS)] were performed in 3D graft models reconstructed on baseline (1-month) angiograms frame by frame by a core laboratory blinded for the late follow-up. The late patency was documented by Quantitative Flow Ratio (QFR®) that reflects the physiological status of the graft. The correlation between 4 mechanical factors and segmental QFR (△QFR) were analysed on 10 equal-length segments of each graft. RESULTS: A total of 69 graft geometries of 7 animals were performed in the study. The highest △QFR at 12 months was colocalized in segments of the grafts with the largest bending angles at baseline. Higher △QFR at 3 months were both at the anastomotic ends and were colocalized with the highest superficial wall strain at baseline. High baseline ESS was topographically associated with higher △QFR at the latest follow-up. Correlations of minimum and maximum ESS with △QFR at 3 months were the strongest among these parameters (ρ = 0.30, 95% CI [-0.05 to 0.56] and ρ = 0.27, 95% CI [-0.05 to 0.54], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limited number of grafts, this study suggests an association between early abnormal mechanical factors and late flow metrics of the grafts. The understanding of the mechanical characteristics could help to improve this novel conduit.

Impact of preprocedural biological markers on 10-year mortality in the SYNTAXES trial.

BACKGROUND: Creatinine clearance (CrCl) is an independent determinant of mortality in predictive models of revascularisation outcomes for complex coronary artery disease. AIMS: This study aimed to investigate the impact of preprocedural biological markers on 10-year mortality following coronary revascularisation. METHODS: The SYNTAX Extended Survival (SYNTAXES) study evaluated the 10-year vital status follow-up of 1,800 patients with de novo three-vessel (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) randomised to include percutaneous or surgical coronary revascularisation. The associations between mortality and preprocedural C-reactive protein (CRP), haemoglobin, HbA1c, CrCl, fasting triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were analysed. RESULTS: Out of 1,800 patients, 460 patients died before the 10-year follow-up. CRP, HbA1c and CrCl with threshold values of ≥2 mg/L, ≥6% (42 mmol/mol) and <60 ml/min, respectively, were associated with 10-year all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.35 [1.01-1.82], 1.51 [1.16-1.95], and 1.46 [1.07-2.00], respectively). There was no significant interaction between the biological markers on all-cause mortality and the type of revascularisation. Preprocedural lipid markers were not significantly associated with 10-year all-cause death, but the non-use of statins was a determinant factor of worse prognosis (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.68 [1.26-2.25]). CONCLUSIONS: Preprocedural biomarkers, such as CRP and HbA1c, are associated with long-term mortality post revascularisation, regardless of the revascularisation technique. Conventional lipidic biomarkers associated with high-risk of cardiovascular events seem to be effectively mitigated by the long-term use of statins, whereas the non-use of statins was a factor of a worse prognosis, emphasising the importance of pharmacological treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SYNTAXES ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03417050. SYNTAX ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00114972.

Single or multiple arterial bypass graft surgery vs. percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with three-vessel or left main coronary artery disease.

AIM: The aim of this study was to compare long-term all-cause mortality between patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using multiple (MAG) or single arterial grafting (SAG). METHODS AND RESULTS: The current study is a post hoc analysis of the SYNTAX Extended Survival Study, which compared PCI with CABG in patients with three-vessel (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) and evaluated survival with ≥10 years of follow-up. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at maximum follow-up (median 11.9 years) assessed in the as-treated population. Of the 1743 patients, 901 (51.7%) underwent PCI, 532 (30.5%) received SAG, and 310 (17.8%) had MAG. At maximum follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 305 (33.9%), 175 (32.9%), and 70 (22.6%) patients in the PCI, SAG, and MAG groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Multiple arterial grafting [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49-0.89], but not SAG (adjusted HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.67-1.03), was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality compared with PCI. In patients with 3VD, both MAG (adjusted HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.37-0.81) and SAG (adjusted HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50-0.91) were associated with significantly lower mortality than PCI, whereas in LMCAD patients, no significant differences between PCI and MAG (adjusted HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.56-1.46) or SAG (adjusted HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.81-1.53) were observed. In patients with revascularization of all three major myocardial territories, a positive correlation was observed between the number of myocardial territories receiving arterial grafts and survival (Ptrend = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that MAG might be the more desirable configuration for CABG to achieve lower long-term all-cause mortality than PCI in patients with 3VD and/or LMCAD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered on clinicaltrial.gov. SYNTAXES: NCT03417050 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03417050); SYNTAX: NCT00114972 (https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00114972).

Ten-year all-cause death after percutaneous or surgical revascularization in diabetic patients with complex coronary artery disease.

AIMS: The aim of this article was to compare rates of all-cause death at 10 years following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with or without diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: The SYNTAXES study evaluated up to 10-year survival of 1800 patients with three-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) randomized to receive either PCI or CABG in the SYNTAX trial. Ten-year all-cause death according to diabetic status and revascularization strategy was examined. In diabetics (n = 452), the risk of mortality was numerically higher with PCI compared with CABG at 5 years [19.6% vs. 13.3%, hazard ratio (HR): 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96, 2.43, P = 0.075], with the opposite seen between 5 and 10 years (PCI vs. CABG: 20.8% vs. 24.4%, HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.52, 1.27, P = 0.366). Irrespective of diabetic status, there was no significant difference in all-cause death at 10 years between patients receiving PCI or CABG, the absolute treatment difference was 1.9% in diabetics (PCI vs. CABG: 36.4% vs. 34.5%, difference: 1.9%, 95% CI: -7.6%, 11.1%, P = 0.551). Among insulin-treated patients (n = 182), all-cause death at 10 years was numerically higher with PCI (47.9% vs. 39.6%, difference: 8.2%, 95% CI: -6.5%, 22.5%, P = 0.227). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment effects of PCI vs. CABG on all-cause death at 10 years in patients with 3VD and/or LMCAD were similar irrespective of the presence of diabetes. There may, however, be a survival benefit with CABG in patients with insulin-treated diabetes. The association between revascularization strategy and very long-term ischaemic and safety outcomes for patients with diabetes needs further investigation in dedicated trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SYNTAX: ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT00114972 and SYNTAX Extended Survival: ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT03417050.

Impact of Optimal Medical Therapy on 10-Year Mortality After Coronary Revascularization.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of optimal medical therapy (OMT) on 5-year outcomes in patients with 3-vessel disease and/or left main disease after percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was demonstrated in the randomized SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) trial. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this analysis is to assess the impact of the status of OMT at 5 years on 10-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention or CABG. METHODS: This is a subanalysis of the SYNTAXES (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery Extended Survival) study, which evaluated for up to 10 years the vital status of patients who were originally enrolled in the SYNTAX trial. OMT was defined as the combination of 4 types of medications: at least 1 antiplatelet drug, statin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, and beta-blocker. After stratifying participants by the number of individual OMT agents at 5 years and randomized treatment, a landmark analysis was conducted to assess the association between treatment response and 10-year mortality. RESULTS: In 1,472 patients, patients on OMT at 5 years had a significantly lower mortality at 10 years compared with those on ≤2 types of medications (13.1% vs 19.9%; adjusted HR: 0.470; 95% CI: 0.292-0.757; P = 0.002) but had a mortality similar to those on 3 types of medications. Furthermore, patients undergoing CABG with the individual OMT agents, antiplatelet drug and statin, at 5 years had lower 10-year mortality than those without. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with 3-vessel and/or left main disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention or CABG, medication status at 5 years had a significant impact on 10-year mortality. Patients on OMT with guideline-recommended pharmacologic therapy at 5 years had a survival benefit. (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery: SYNTAX Extended Survival [SYNTAXES]; NCT03417050; Taxus Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries [SYNTAX]; NCT00114972).

10-Year Follow-Up After Revascularization in Elderly Patients With Complex Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: The optimal revascularization strategy for the elderly with complex coronary artery disease remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to investigate 10-year all-cause mortality, life expectancy, 5-year major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE), and 5-year quality of life (QOL) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in elderly individuals (>70 years old) with 3-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main disease (LMD). METHODS: In the present pre-specified analysis on age of the SYNTAX Extended Survival study, 10-year all-cause death and 5-year MACCE were compared with Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models among elderly or nonelderly patients. Life expectancy was estimated by restricted mean survival time within 10 years, and QOL status according to the Seattle Angina Questionnaire up to 5 years was assessed by linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Among 1,800 randomized patients, 575 patients (31.9%) were elderly. Ten-year mortality did not differ significantly between PCI and CABG in elderly (44.1% vs. 41.1%; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84 to 1.40) and nonelderly patients (21.1% vs. 16.6%; HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.69; pinteraction = 0.332). Among elderly patients, 5-year MACCE was comparable between PCI and CABG (39.4% vs. 35.1%; HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.56), whereas it was significantly higher in PCI over CABG among nonelderly patients (36.3% vs. 23.0%; HR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.36 to 2.10; pinteraction = 0.043). There were no significant difference in life expectancy (mean difference: 0.2 years in favor of CABG; 95% CI: -0.4 to 0.7) and 5-year QOL status between PCI and CABG among elderly patients. CONCLUSIONS: Elderly patients with 3VD and/or LMD had comparable 10-year all-cause death, life expectancy, 5-year MACCE, and 5-year QOL status irrespective of revascularization mode. (Synergy Between PCI With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery: SYNTAX Extended Survival [SYNTAXES]; NCT03417050) (SYNTAX Study: TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries [SYNTAX]; NCT00114972).

Impact of Body Composition Indices on Ten-year Mortality After Revascularization of Complex Coronary Artery Disease (From the Syntax Extended Survival Trial).

Numerous studies have demonstrated a paradoxical association between higher baseline body mass index (BMI) and lower long-term mortality risk after coronary revascularization, known as the "obesity paradox", possibly relying on the single use of BMI. The current study is a post-hoc analysis of the SYNTAX Extended Survival (SYNTAXES) trial, which is the extended follow-up of the SYNTAX trial comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) versus coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in patients with left-main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) or three-vessel disease (3VD). Patients were stratified according to baseline BMI and/or waist circumference (WC). Out of 1,800 patients, 1,799 (99.9%) and 1,587 (88.2%) had available baseline BMI and WC data, respectively. Of those, 1,327 (73.8%) patients had High BMI (≥25 kg/m2), whereas 705 (44.4%) patients had High WC (>102 cm for men or >88 cm for women). When stratified by both BMI and WC, 10-year mortality risk was significantly higher in patients with Low BMI/Low WC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 2.51), Low BMI/ High WC (adjusted HR: 2.74; 95% CI: 1.12 to 6.69), or High BMI/High WC (adjusted HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.27) compared to those with High BMI/Low WC. In conclusion, the "obesity paradox" following coronary revascularization would be driven by low long-term mortality risk of the High BMI/Low WC group. Body composition should be assessed by the combination of BMI and WC in the appropriate evaluation of the long-term risk of obesity in patients with LMCAD or 3VD.

Graphical comparisons of relative disease burden across multiple risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Population attributable fractions (PAF) measure the proportion of disease prevalence that would be avoided in a hypothetical population, similar to the population of interest, but where a particular risk factor is eliminated. They are extensively used in epidemiology to quantify and compare disease burden due to various risk factors, and directly influence public policy regarding possible health interventions. In contrast to individual specific metrics such as relative risks and odds ratios, attributable fractions depend jointly on both risk factor prevalence and relative risk. The relative contributions of these two components is important, and usually needs to be presented in summary tables that are presented together with the attributable fraction calculation. However, representing PAF in an accessible graphical format, that captures both prevalence and relative risk, may assist interpretation. METHODS: Taylor-series approximations to PAF in terms of risk factor prevalence and log-odds ratio are derived that facilitate simultaneous representation of PAF, risk factor prevalence and risk-factor/disease log-odds ratios on a single co-ordinate axis. Methods are developed for binary, multi-category and continuous exposure variables. RESULTS: The methods are demonstrated using INTERSTROKE, a large international case control dataset focused on risk factors for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The described methods could be used as a complement to tables summarizing prevalence, odds ratios and PAF, and may convey the same information in a more intuitive and visually appealing manner. The suggested nomogram can also be used to visually estimate the effects of health interventions which only partially reduce risk factor prevalence. Finally, in the binary risk factor case, the approximations can also be used to quickly convert logistic regression coefficients for a risk factor into approximate PAFs.

Hospitalisation and surgery: are there hidden cognitive consequences? Evidence from The Irish Longitudinal study on Ageing (TILDA).

Background: the dramatic shift in the global population demographic has led to increasing numbers of older people undergoing hospitalisation and surgical procedures. Objectives: to determine whether hospitalisation or hospitalisation with surgery under general anaesthesia is associated with poorer cognitive performance in adults over the age of 50. Methods: cognitive function in the domains of global cognition, memory and executive function was assessed in 8,023 individuals at waves 1 and 2 of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), 2 years apart. Mixed-effects models were used to investigate the hypothesis after adjustment for risk factors for cognitive decline and potential confounders. Results: during the 12 months preceding wave 1, 472 participants were hospitalised (mean age 67.0, 54.9% female) and a further 560 participants (mean age 64.6, 52.1% female) were hospitalised and underwent surgery with general anaesthesia; 6,938 (mean age 63.5, 54.5% female) were not hospitalised. There was a 14% higher error rate (IRR[95% CI] = 1.14[1.06, 1.22]) in the MMSE in the hospitalisation group and a 6% higher error rate (IRR[95% CI] = 1.06[0.99, 1.13]) in the surgery group compared to those with no hospitalisation. Poorer cognitive performance in the memory tasks was evident in both hospitalisation and hospitalisation with surgery groups (immediate recall: [95% CI] = -0.13 words[-0.22,-0.04] versus -0.13 words[-0.21,-0.04] and delayed recall: -0.20 words[-0.33,-0.06] versus -0.20[-0.32, -0.07]) compared to those with no hospitalisation. Increased error in the time-based prospective memory task was observed in the hospitalisation group and the surgery group (OR[95% CI] = 1.32[1.08, 1.60] versus 1.29[1.07, 1.55]). Conclusion: hospitalisation and hospitalisation with surgery and general anaesthesia are associated with poorer global and domain specific cognitive performance.

Orthostatic hypertension as a risk factor for age-related macular degeneration: Evidence from the Irish longitudinal study on ageing.

PURPOSE: Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of irreversible visual loss in developed countries. It is associated with vascular risk factors including hypertension. Dysregulated blood pressure (BP) behaviour including orthostatic hypertension (OHTN), hypotension (OH) and BP variability (BPV) are associated with end-organ damage, particularly in the brain. We investigated if abnormal orthostatic BP (OBP) was a risk factor for AMD, for which a vascular aetiology is implicated. METHODS: A nationally representative, cross-sectional study was carried out 2009/2010 in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Beat-to-beat BP data, measured by digital photoplethysmography during active stand, was used to characterise OBP behaviour in the 30-110 s after standing. OH, OHTN, BPV and normal stabilisation recovery phenotypes were defined. AMD was identified following masked grading of 45° monoscopic colour retinal photographs, which were centred on the macula and taken with a NIDEK AFC-210 non-mydriatic auto-fundus camera. The relationship between OBP recovery phenotypes and AMD in 3750 adults aged ≥50 years was investigated using multivariate logistic regression models, adjusted for traditional AMD risk factors. RESULTS: From 30 to 110 s post active stand, systolic and diastolic OHTN was associated with increased odds of AMD after adjustment for demographics, health behaviours including smoking, family history of AMD, self-report (SR) diabetes, SR cataracts, objective hypertension and prescribed antihypertensives. No evidence of heterogeneity of OHTN effect was found between those who were hypertensive to those who were normotensive. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that OHTN may be an independent cardiovascular risk factor for AMD.

Examining the utility of cystatin C as a confirmatory test of chronic kidney disease across the age range in middle-aged and older community-dwelling adults.

BACKGROUND: Cystatin C has been proposed as a confirmatory test of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This is most applicable to older individuals with CKD, the majority of whom have a creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 (CKD stage 3a). We sought to examine the utility of cystatin C as a confirmatory test of CKD across the age range in the general population of older adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of 5386 participants from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a cluster-sampled national cohort of community-dwelling adults aged ≥50 years. Cystatin C and creatinine were measured simultaneously using standardised assays. Using generalised additive models, we modelled the distributions of creatinine and cystatin C per year of age from four distributional parameters: location, dispersion, skewness, kurtosis. Among participants with CKD stage 3a, we estimated the predicted probability of cystatin C eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 ('confirmed CKD') as a function of age. RESULTS: Median age was 62 years, 53% were female and median cystatin C eGFR was 80 mL/min/1.73 m2. We observed progressive variability in cystatin C with increasing age. Compared with creatinine, cystatin C levels rose sharply beyond the age of 65. Among participants with CKD stage 3a (n=463), the predicted probability of 'confirmed CKD' increased steadily with age, from 15% at age 50 to 80% at age 80. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical utility of cystatin C may be maximised in middle-aged individuals, in whom the distribution of cystatin C is less variable than older adults, and the pretest probability of confirming CKD is lower.

Graded Association Between Kidney Function and Impaired Orthostatic Blood Pressure Stabilization in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Impaired orthostatic blood pressure (BP) stabilization is highly prevalent in older adults and is a predictor of end-organ injury, falls, and mortality. We sought to characterize the relationship between postural BP responses and the kidney. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 4204 participants from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a national cohort of community-dwelling adults aged ≥50 years. Beat-to-beat systolic and diastolic BP were measured during a 2-minute active stand test. The primary predictor was cystatin C estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categorized as follows (mL/min per 1.73 m2): ≥90 (reference, n=1414); 75 to 89 (n=1379); 60 to 74 (n=942); 45 to 59 (n=337); <45 (n=132). We examined the association between eGFR categories and (1) sustained orthostatic hypotension, defined as a BP drop exceeding consensus thresholds (systolic BP drop ≥20 mm Hg±diastolic BP drop ≥10 mm Hg) at each 10-second interval from 60 to 110 seconds inclusive; (2) pattern of BP stabilization, characterized as the difference from baseline in mean systolic BP/diastolic BP at 10-second intervals. The mean age of subjects was 61.6 years; 47% of subjects were male, and the median eGFR was 82 mL/min per 1.73 m2. After multivariable adjustment, participants with eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 were approximately twice as likely to have sustained orthostatic hypotension (P=0.008 for trend across eGFR categories). We observed a graded association between eGFR categories and impaired orthostatic BP stabilization, particularly within the first minute of standing. CONCLUSIONS: We report a novel, graded relationship between diminished eGFR and impaired orthostatic BP stabilization. Mapping the postural BP response merits further study in kidney disease as a potential means of identifying those at risk of hypotension-related events.

Assessing the impact of a Carer Support Needs Assessment Tool (CSNAT) intervention in palliative home care: a stepped wedge cluster trial.

OBJECTIVES: To test the impact on family carers of a Carer Support Needs Assessment Tool (CSNAT) intervention to facilitate carer-led assessment and support during end of life care. METHOD: Mixed method, part-randomised, stepped wedge cluster trial with 6 palliative home care services comparing carers receiving the intervention with those receiving standard care. Postal survey with carers 4-5 months postbereavement measured adequacy of end of life support, current mental and physical health (Short Form 12 Health Survey SF-12), level of grief (Texas Revised Inventory of Grief, TRIG) and distress (Distress Thermometer, DT), place of death and carer satisfaction with place of death. RESULTS: Surveys were sent to 3260 (76%) carers of 4311 deceased patients; 681 (21%) were returned (N=333 control, N=348 intervention). Compared with controls, intervention carers had significantly lower levels of early grief, better psychological and physical health, were more likely to feel the place of death was right, and patients were more likely to die at home. However, differences were small and process measures showed low level of implementation, indicating differences may partially relate to increased awareness of carer issues rather than a direct impact of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Carers had better outcomes in the intervention condition, albeit modest. If this can be achieved through low level implementation and awareness raising of carers' needs from implementation activities, substantial impact should be possible if the CSNAT intervention can be fully implemented with a majority of carers. The study illustrates challenges of implementing and testing a complex intervention in real-life practice and of achieving comprehensive carer assessment and support in line with government recommendations.

Laminar displacement and prelaminar tissue thickness change after glaucoma surgery imaged with optical coherence tomography.

PURPOSE: To study changes in lamina cribrosa position and prelaminar tissue thickness (PTT) after surgical IOP reduction in glaucoma patients. METHODS: Twenty-two patients (mean age, 71.4 years) were imaged with spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT; 24 radial B-scans centered on the optic nerve head [ONH]) before trabeculectomy or tube shunt implantation. Follow up images were acquired 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months postsurgery. Bruch's membrane opening (BMO), the internal limiting membrane (ILM) and the anterior laminar surface (ALS) were segmented in each radial scan with custom software. Surfaces were fitted to the ILM and ALS with the extracted three-dimesional coordinates. PTT was the distance between the ILM and ALS, perpendicular to a BMO reference plane. Serial postsurgical laminar displacement (LD), relative to the BMO reference plane, and changes in PTT were measured. Positive values indicated anterior LD. RESULTS: Mean (SD) presurgery IOP was 18.1 (6.5) mm Hg, and reduced by 4.7 (5.5), 2.4 (7.7), 7.0 (6.2), and 6.8 (7.5) mm Hg at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months postsurgery, respectively. At the four postsurgery time points, there was significant anterior LD (1.8 [9.5], -1.1 [8.9], 8.8 [20.2], and 17.9 [25.8] µm) and PTT increase (1.7 [13.3], 2.4 [11.9], 17.4 [13.7], and 13.9 [18.6] µm). LD was greater in ONHs with larger BMO area (P = 0.01) and deeper ALS (P = 0.04); however, PTT was not associated with any of the tested independent variables. CONCLUSIONS: Both anterior LD and thickening of prelaminar tissue occur after surgical IOP reduction in patients with glaucoma.